Following the far-right takeover of the NC Supreme Court in 2022, Republicans in our state legislature threw out the NC House and NC Senate district maps used for the 2022 elections and enacted two of the most extreme partisan gerrymanders in U.S. history.
North Carolinians deserve fair voting maps that allow us to choose our representatives instead of representatives choosing their voters. The first step to getting fair maps is taking back our state courts before new maps are drawn for the next decade.
In the meantime, we must keep up the fight to prevent Republicans from regaining a veto-proof supermajority in our state legislature.
With a midterm election and a backlash to Trump, 2026 has the potential to be a favorable election year for these races. The 2018 midterm – the first time Trump was in office – was a blue moon election year with no federal statewide races at the top of the ticket. Voter outreach resources and efforts focused heavily on competitive legislative districts. With those efforts – and a backlash to Trump – Democrats flipped 10 seats in the NC House and 6 seats in the NC Senate, breaking the supermajorities in both chambers and putting a stop to a steady stream of harmful right-wing legislation.
We can do it again in 2026 with your support. You can help by volunteering with or donating to the Democratic candidates or by joining one of our grassroots friends and partners in supporting these critical races.
Here are the most competitive legislative districts in North Carolina that need our support to win in 2026.
Note: This cycle, FLIP NC has returned to generating our own partisan-lean scores for legislative races, this time using past NC House and NC Senate performance in combination with 2024 presidential results. We expect these scores to provide more accurate predictions of legislative outcomes than the composite statewide scores we reported from Dave’s Redistricting in 2024.
THE MOST COMPETITIVE NC HOUSE DISTRICTS IN 2026
Democrats must win at least four of these highly competitive districts to prevent a GOP supermajority in the NC House.
Democrats currently hold 49 of the 120 seats in the NC House, exactly the total needed to prevent a GOP supermajority. In 2026, Democrats can build a safer buffer to protect the governor’s veto power by flipping some of the most competitive Republican-held districts while also protecting several seats Democrats won by close margins in 2024.
The Most Flippable Districts
1. NC-H25 - Nash County - D-0.5 - Democrats lost this seat by just one point in 2024, and the margins in the district for the presidential and state senate races were even closer: The presidential was almost exactly tied, while the Democratic candidate for NC Senate carried the precincts in this House district by half a point. Democrats have an excellent chance to flip this district in 2024 with a strong challenger.
2. NC-H105 - Mecklenburg County - D-0.5 - Republican Tricia Cotham managed to hold this seat in 2024, winning by just 213 votes, or just 0.4 points. And Kamala Harris actually carried this district by less than 1%, suggesting that it is winnable for Democrats in 2026.
In this district, the deceitful Rep. Tricia Cotham ran in 2022 as a progressive Democrat but switched parties just three months into her term, handing Republicans a supermajority and helping to pass a string of right-wing bills, including a new 12-week abortion ban – after strongly campaigning against abortion restrictions. As a result of Cotham’s party switch, Republicans were able to override every one of Gov. Roy Cooper’s vetoes in 2023 and 2024. Republicans rewarded Cotham by redrawing her district from strongly Democratic to its current form, which is slightly Republican-leaning.
Our friends at Indivisible Charlotte worked hard to help flip this district in 2024, coming close even in a very unfavorable election year. In a more favorable election year – which we expect 2026 to be – this district is certainly flippable.
The district also falls entirely within competitive NC-S42, so outreach to left-leaning voters here can have an even greater impact. Join our friends at Indivisible Charlotte to help win both districts in 2026.
3. NC-H35 - Wake County - D-3 - Democratic challenger Evonne Hopkins lost this seat by just over 3 points in 2024, and Trump carried the district by only about 2 points, making this district a clear target for Democrats to flip in 2026.
The district also falls entirely within super-competitive NC-S18, where Democratic former NC House Rep. Terence Everitt is now the state senator, so voter outreach here will have an added impact. Join our friends at C2C+NoC to help win both seats in 2026.
Other Key Pickup Opportunities
The remaining NC House districts on our list of possible Democratic pickups are in largely suburban districts – the same places where we saw a surge for Democratic state legislative candidates in the 2018 midterm, following Trump’s first election.
1. NC-H37 - Wake County - D-5 - The Democratic candidate lost this race to Republican incumbent Erin Paré by 6 points in 2024, but Trump only carried the district by 3 points. With a rapidly growing and left-trending population, this seat will likely be highly competitive in 2026.
The district also falls entirely within super-competitive NC-S13, where Democratic Sen. Lisa Grafstein won reelection in 2024, so voter outreach here will have an added impact. Join our friends at C2C+NoC to help win both seats in 2026.
2. NC-H74 - Forsyth County - D-6 - Democratic challenger Amy Taylor North lost this seat by just 3.6 points in 2024, sharply overperforming other Democratic candidates here. The district as a whole leans further right – Trump carried it by 7.5 points – but it is winnable in 2026 with a combination of North’s overperformance and a more favorable election cycle. Join our friends at Fair Forsyth to help flip this district in 2026.
3. NC-H62 - Guilford County - D-6.5 - Democrats lost this race by 7 points in 2024, but Harris lost by 6, and the overlapping NC Senate candidates collectively trailed their Republican opponents by only 4 points. With a large enough Trump backlash and a strong candidate, this district is winnable for Democrats in 2026.
4. NC-H73 - Cabarrus County - D-7 - Under the newly drawn map – rigged to more heavily favor Republicans – Democratic incumbent Diamond Staton-Williams lost this seat by 6.4 points in 2024, despite running ahead of Harris. Cabarrus County has been gradually shifting toward Democrats, and Democrats could flip this seat back with a more favorable election cycle in 2026.
Closely Held Democratic Seats We Must Protect
1. NC-H24 - Wilson County - D-even - Newly elected Democratic representative Dante Pittman flipped this district by 2.2 points in 2024, despite Trump carrying the district by almost 2 points. Pittman’s victory was critical in preventing a Republican supermajority in the NC House following the 2024 election, and we will need to work to protect this seat in 2026.
2. NC-H32 - Granville and Vance Counties - D-even - Representative Bryan Cohn flipped this seat in 2024 by just 228 votes! Harris carried this district by a similarly small margin, showing just how close this district is.
The district also overlaps significantly with super-competitive NC-S18, now held by Democratic former NC House Rep. Terence Everitt. Join our friends at C2C+NoC to help defend both seats in 2026 or donate directly to Bryan Cohn’s campaign.
3. NC-H115 - Buncombe County - D-even - Rep. Lindsey Prather carried this district by 3 points in 2024, despite Trump winning the district by 3 points. Help re-elect Rep. Prather by volunteering with or donating to her campaign.
4. NC-H48 - Hoke and Scotland Counties - D+2.5 - Long-serving Democratic Rep. Garland Pierce carried this district by 4 points in 2024, but this district has been trending away from Democrats, and Harris carried it by less than a point. Donate here to help support his re-election.
5. NC-H98 - Mecklenburg County - D+3 - This district in northern Mecklenburg County has been one of the closest for the past several election cycles, with the seat changing hands multiple times. Newly elected Democratic Rep. Beth Helfrich flipped the district by 4.4 points in 2024, running about 1.8 points ahead of Harris. Donate here to support her reelection.
THE MOST COMPETITIVE NC SENATE DISTRICTS IN 2026
Democrats need to hold three very close districts and flip at least one from the list below to break the Republican supermajority in the NC Senate.
Closely Held Dem Seats We Must Protect
1. NC-S18 - Granville and Wake Counties - D-even - After three terms in the NC House, Democratic Rep. Terence Everitt had not planned to seek re-election to the state legislature in 2024. However, after the Democratic incumbent here announced that she would not run for re-election in this very competitive district, Rep. Everitt agreed to run for this critical seat at the request of then-Gov. Cooper. He won the district by just 128 votes, while Trump carried it in the presidential election, testifying to Everitt’s strength as a candidate and the impact of his outreach to voters! Join our friends at C2C+NoC to help defend this key district in 2026, or donate directly to his campaign.
2. NC-S42 - Mecklenburg County - D+2.5 - In another incredibly close election, Woodson Bradley won this seat by just 209 votes in 2024. Harris carried the district by 7 points in the presidential here, reflecting the high level of ticket splitting we typically see in this area in state versus national races. With margins so razor thin, Democrats cannot afford to take this district for granted, even if 2026 presents more favorable political conditions. Volunteer with or donate to Woodson Bradley’s campaign.
The district also entirely encompasses NC-H105, where Democrats will be working hard to unseat deceitful Republican Tricia Cotham. Join our friends at Indivisible Charlotte to help win both districts in 2026.
3. NC-S13 - Wake County - D+3.5 - Democratic Sen. Lisa Grafstein won re-election in 2024 in this highly competitive district by just over 3 points. Harris carried the district by a similar margin in the presidential. Join our friends at C2C+NoC to help re-elect Sen. Grafstein or donate directly to her campaign.
Key Opportunities for Pickups
1. NC-S11 - Franklin, Nash, and Vance Counties - D-3 - Democratic candidate James Mercer lost this seat by just 2.6 points in 2024, outperforming the margin in the presidential race by about a point. With such close margins in 2024, this district is definitely flippable in a more favorable election cycle. This district offers our best opportunity for a Democratic pickup that would break the Republican supermajority in 2026.
2. NC-S7 - New Hanover County - D-7 - Democrats lost this NC Senate race by 8.5 points in 2024, but the margin in the presidential race was less than 6 points, presenting a possible pickup opportunity in a more favorable year.
3. NC-S34 - Cabarrus County - D-8 - Democrats lost this Senate race by 8.7 points in 2024, while the margin in the presidential race was about a point closer. Cabarrus County has been trending more Democratic over the past decade, which might put this seat within reach for Democrats if the 2026 election is enough of a blue wave.